8/2 Forecast

1. Pressure System

1. Surface Pressure

Isobars near the Korean Peninsula are widely spaced, suggesting low wind speeds.

The low-pressure system east of Japan has weakened and moved east as its central pressure rose.

The North Pacific High remains similar in strength and coverage to that on the 1st.

By 21 KST, the North Pacific High is expanding.
With pressures around 1004–1008 hPa across the peninsula and minimal pressure differences, winds are expected to be weak.

2. 925hpa

Warm areas form northeast and southwest of the Korean Peninsula, with temperatures still above 24°C across the peninsula.

At 21 KST, warm advection occurs over the Korean Peninsula, resulting in widespread high temperatures.

3. 850hpa

Compared to the 1st, the North Pacific High has expanded southwestward.
Following the persistent southwesterly winds, warm and humid air continues to flow in.

Overall, wind speeds are weak, resulting in slow air movement.

2. Wind

850hpa Stream Line & Isotach

Southwesterly to southerly winds continue to dominate over the Korean Peninsula, allowing the sustained inflow of warm and humid air.

Compared to the 1st, the area with winds exceeding 25 knots has shrunk, creating conditions more favorable for the accumulation of radiant heat.

At 21 KST, the flow from the west shifts slightly, forming a weak westerly wind pattern.
Wind speeds further weaken, and the overall airflow over the peninsula slows down.
This strengthens the stagnant air structure, allowing upper-level heat to remain trapped.

3. Precipitation/ Humidity

There is a possibility of local precipitation in Chungcheong, Gyeonggi, Gangwon.

The east-south area is dry and the atmosphere is stable, so there are no obvious signs of precipitation

850hPa Moisture Flux

Clear moisture flux from inland China towards the west coast of the Korean Peninsula
Weak convergence zones
Low-rise water supply is active in the western inland center-> weak precipitation potential

850hPa Streamline and Isotach

A strong low-layer jet zone of more than 25 kt is formed along the southwest and west coasts
Airflow convergence over the West Sea -> Possible induction of mechanical rise and precipitation

1000-500hPa Thickness & 700hPa T-Td

Gangwon, Gyeonggi , North Chungcheong : Atmospheric instability is high as it approaches saturation
Most of the South: Low saturation, low chance of precipitation

K-index

Chungcheong-Gyeonggi-Gangwon: K Index 35-38 Distribution: Unstable
Other regions: K index 35-30: Convection weak or no

4. Cloud

A bright but somewhat scattered cloud band is observed across northern to central parts of the Korean Peninsula, especially over northern Gyeonggi and inland Gangwon.
Overall, low- to mid-level clouds are thinly distributed, suggesting overcast skies or occasional rain clouds rather than continuous precipitation → Possibility of light or intermittent rain.

The east coast and southern regions are expected to be relatively clear.

5. Temperature

2024.08.02.|09KST

As of 9 AM on August 2nd, we follow the dry adiabat line from the 850 hPa temperature on the thermodynamic chart down to the surface, the maximum temperature is expected to be approximately 32°C.

2024.08.01.|21KST

As of 9 PM on August 1st,the minimum temperature in Seoul on August 2nd is expected to be approximately 25-27°C.

8/2 Observation

1. Wind

2. Precipitation

Gangwon: 20mm rain, parts of North Chungcheong: showers

3. Temperature

Daily average

→ All of South Korea is recording high temperatures around or above 30°C (orange to dark orange)

Climate deviation

Almost the whole area is covered in pink, with the east coast and the south coast showing deep pink

→ a much higher temperature than usual

Temperature deviations above +2,3°C in most areas and above +5°C in some areas

Standard score

Z-Score is 0.25, 0.5 or higher in most of the country

Maximum temperature is 32.5°C, 1.6°C above last year (30.9°C)
Minimum temperature is 28.2°C, 3.9°C above last year (24.3°C)