8/4 Forecast
1. Pressure System
1. Surface Pressure
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The low-pressure system between the Korean Peninsula and Japan has dissipated.
2. 850hpa
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Temperatures aloft over the Korean Peninsula show a slight decrease compared to the previous day, but as the high-pressure system approaches, its center settles over the peninsula by 21 KST, leading to more stagnant atmospheric flow.
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Due to the descending air characteristic of high-pressure systems, vertical mixing is suppressed.
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As a result, radiant heat accumulated during the day cannot easily escape, increasing the likelihood of sustained nighttime temperatures and tropical nights.
3. 500hpa
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The eastward-extending ridge of high pressure stretches toward the Korean Peninsula, maintaining a stable flow in the upper atmosphere.
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This induces subsidence, suppressing atmospheric mixing between upper and lower layers, which likely leads to a stagnant structure favorable for the accumulation of radiant heat.
2. Wind
850hpa Stream Line & Isotach
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A tropical low-pressure area located over the southern sea of the Korean Peninsula interacts with winds flowing from south to north associated with a low-pressure system.
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A weak circulation persists over the peninsula, increasing the likelihood that warm air remains trapped.
Due to the unclear airflow, radiant heat can accumulate, potentially prolonging the heat wave and increasing the chance of tropical nights.
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To the north of the peninsula, the influence of the low-pressure system generates a strong anticlockwise flow, causing air to converge toward the low’s center, which may induce upward motion.
3. Precipitation/ Humidity
There is a possibility of intermittent showers, but no strong thunderstorms or gusts are expected.
01
850hPa Moisture Flux
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Existence of water inflow in the southwest direction
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Active convergence is not visible, but weak non-possibility exists in the southern part
03
850 hPa Streamline and Isotach
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There is no direct convergence center, but it is likely to be affected by the surrounding convergence zone
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Weak Swirl shape from the Korean Peninsula to the South
02
1000-500hPa Thickness & 700hPa T-Td
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The thickness layer shows a very common summer pattern.
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No wet area on the Korean peninsula: strong rain clouds or thunderstorms are difficult to develop.
04
K-index
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The entire Korean peninsula is located at K-index 30 ~ 35 :possibility of local weak convection, but the possibility of thunderstorm is not great.
4. Cloud
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As various types of clouds are distributed throughout the Korean peninsula, there is a possibility of showers due to instability.
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Developed low pressure clouds in the West Sea are likely to have future impacts, and could serve as sources of water vapor
5. Temperature
2024.08.04|09KST
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As of 9 AM on August 4th, following the dry adiabat line from the 850 hPa temperature on the thermodynamic chart down to the surface, the maximum temperature is expected to be approximately 35°C.
2024.08.03|21KST
As of 9 PM on August 3rd, the minimum temperature in Seoul on August 4th is expected to be approximately 26°C
8/4 Observation
1. Wind
2. Precipitation
Strong rain and gusts of wind in the south, consistent with predictions.
40mm: Chungbuk, 20~30mm: Jeonbuk, 30mm: Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, and 20mm :Seo-gu, Daegu
3. Temperature
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Daily average
All of South Korea is recording high temperatures around 30°C or higher.
Some inland areas have high temperatures above 35°C.
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Temperature deviation
The whole area is covered in deep pink
→ a much higher temperature than usual
There are temperature deviations above +3°C in most areas and above +5°C in some areas
→ an unusual high-temperature phenomenon
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Standard score
Most areas of the country have Z-Score above 2.5, and even 5.0
→ This is statistically very rare high temperature phenomenon
→ Climatologically, it indicates an extreme heat wave
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Maximum temperature is 36.2°C, 5.1°C above last year (31.1°C)
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Minimum temperature is 27.3°C, 3.1°C above last year (24.2°C)